predictions against the point spread For Sunday from liuyt's blog

Week 4 NFL picks http://www.giantscheapshops.com/cheap-authentic-patrick-omameh-jersey , , use this for your non-Giants games open thread.After a good start to the season, two losing weeks have not been fun. There were a lot of weird games last week, so this week will maybe help show if some of those were just flukes or if we were wrong about some teams over the first two weeks of the season. Remember these picks are strictly for fun and entertainment purposes and please for your sake do not take these picks as gambling advice. Lines used here come from the Westgate Las Vegas via OddsShark. Home team in CAPS.Minnesota (+7) over RAMSThe Rams are probably the best team in the league — they’re first in DVOA and point differential — and the Vikings just did鈥?I don’t know what the Vikings just did against the Bills. But this is a weird Thursday night game, the Rams will be without Aqib Talib and possibly Marcus Peters at cornerback. Against Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen, that’s no bueno. Minnesota might also have a defense that can hang with the Rams offense. I’d still probably pick the Rams to win, but seven points is a lot.UPDATE: there were a lot of points here, but it ended up as a draw against the spread. 0-0-1 for the week.Philadelphia (-4) over TENNESSEETennessee might be the weirdest team in the league. They lose a crazy marathon game to the Dolphins in Week 1, then beat the Texans by barely throwing the ball, then beat the Jaguars in a game with almost no points that saw their injured starting quarterback play significantly more than the backup who started the game. Despite all that, Titans are still just 24th in DVOA and the Eagles are better in just about every way. GREEN BAY (-9.5) over BuffaloWhat the hell, Buffalo? There was a point it felt we had to adjust stats for teams that played against the Bills, then they go and blow out the Vikings. But still, we have a two-game sample of the Bills being the worst team in the league and one being very opportunistic. Outside of Tre’Davious White, the Buffalo defense has been a disappointment and it’s not going to take much more than that to pick Aaron Rodgers by a lot in this game.Detroit (+3) over DALLASThe Dallas offense is pitiful, there’s really no way around it. Even with the lack of receivers Aldrick Rosas Jersey , the offense should be better than this. Detroit maybe figured out a winning formula against New England and there’s little to suggest they won’t be able to take advantage of whatever is going on in Dallas right now.CHICAGO (-3) over Tampa BayThere hasn’t been a better defense in the league so far than the Chicago Bears. There have been few better offenses than the Buccaneers. The one way to slow down Ryan Fitzpatrick (if he’s the starter) is to force him into turnovers and that’s something the Bears can do. Chicago matches up really well on that side of the ball, which will be important while they still figure out what they can and can’t do on offense.Jets (+7.5) over JACKSONVILLEDominating New England and then not being able to do anything against Tennessee is quite the two-week stretch for Jacksonville. The Jaguars defense should be able to handle the Jets’ offense, but the Jets are second in defensive DVOA and second in special teams DVOA, which could keep this game closer than some (the line) would anticipate.NEW ENGLAND (-6.5) over MiamiThe Patriots can have slow Septembers, even though this feels like one of the slowest of the Brady-Belichick era. Still, it’s the Brady-Belichick era and expecting back-to-back letdown games from New England is expecting lightning to strike twice. Miami is surprisingly top-10 in all three phases of the game by DVOA, but even with that it’s hard to pick against the Pats.INDIANAPOLIS (-1) over Houston炉\_(銉?_/炉Cincinnati (+5.5) over ATLANTAThe Bengals offense can put up points. So can the Falcons offense. But the Cincinnati defense has a much bigger advantage over the Atlanta defense as currently constructed. It feels weird to say, but don’t be surprised if the Bengals can hang in a potential shootout with the Falcons.Seattle (-3) over ARIZONAIt’s Josh Rosen time, which is nice. But unless the Cardinals have figured out they need to completely change the structure of the offense along with the quarterback, there’s not a lot of immediate hope for an instant improvement. As much as the Seahawks have changed over personnel on defense, they still rank sixth in defensive DVOA through three weeks.Cleveland (+2.5) over OAKLANDAll aboard the Baker train. Oakland is 31st in defensive DVOA, nearly the perfect defense for Mayfield to make his first start. He was so calm and collected against the Jets and a full week of prep for him as the starter can absolutely yield great results.CHARGERS (-10) over San FranciscoAs much as the Chiefs and Buccaneers have gotten talked about as the top offense, no team has gained 20 or more yards on a higher percentage of their offensive plays than the Chargers. San Francisco has some injuries on defense and will be starting C.J. Beathard at quarterback. That’s really all you need to know.New Orleans (-3.5) over GIANTSThere’s going to be a lot written about this game (and already has) on this site. So I’ll make this brief: it’s hard to imagine the Giants winning a potential shootout here. Baltimore (+3) over PITTSBURGHThe Ravens have a top-5 defense and an offense that’s been much more passable than it has in the past. Pittsburgh can still put up the yards and points with the best of them, but the defense hasn’t been able to stop anyone through the first three weeks of the season. With the quarterback selections recently, we’re moving toward a time when the AFC North matchups are going to be more Big 12 than 1980’s. How this game plays out could be a good test in how close we are to that.Kansas City (-5.5) over DENVERKansas City is scoring on 53 percent of their offensive drives. They’re also allowing scores on 48 percent of their opponents’ drives, but 53 > 48. Everything about the Kansas CIty offense has been perfect so far. It’s spread out to give Patrick Mahomes open reads and he’s good enough to take advantage of them. It’s more than enough for the Chiefs to have the advantage every time they get themselves into a shootout Youth Patrick Omameh Jersey , which has been just about every game this season.Last week: 6-10Season: 19-27-2 [Note: Feel free to use this page the place for you non-Giants open thread on Sunday]Back on the right side of .500 鈥?for the week. The season is another story. But an above .500 week was nice to see after the tire fire of a Thursday night game — Arizona +1 was a bust almost from the opening kickoff. But, hey, we’re still trying and we never said these picks were going to be great. They’re just picks and continue to pick we shall.Remember these picks are strictly for fun and entertainment purposes and please for your sake do not take these picks as gambling advice. Lines used here come from the Westgate Las Vegas via OddsShark. Home team in CAPS.HOUSTON (-7.5) over MiamiHouston’s at the top of the AFC South, but has yet to play particularly well. Miami is super weird — 26th in Variance, per Football Outsiders, which means from week-to-week you don’t really know what you’re going to get. The Dolphins are starting Brock Osweiler again and won’t have Albert Wilson against a Texans defense that looks like its forming into one of the best in the league. Miami might not even be able to take advantage of Houston’s biggest weakness — the offensive line. The Dolphins have one of the worst pressure rates on defense and they rank 29th in adjusted sack rate.[Update: This hit, 1-0 for the week]Philadelphia (-3) over Jacksonville (in London)Both of these teams are disappointing relative to preseason expectations this season — but for this game, one of them doesn’t have Blake Bortles. At any point, Bortles could turn into a quarterback who is fine, but boy has that not been the case in the past few weeks. The Eagles really dominated the Panthers for like three and a half quarters before pulling out last-minute loss. Philadelphia might not be great, but they should be good enough to get back on track here.KANSAS CITY (-10) over DenverDenver is second is pass defense DVOA, but it’s just so damn hard to have Patrick Mahomes or Andy Reid to make a mistake. New England almost got there for a half, then the Chiefs adjusted. Mahomes is only throwing into tight coverage on 10 percent of his throws, the lowest-rate among starters in the league, but he’s also throwing some of the deepest passes in the league on average — during the offseason, I found most “separation” happens on shorter routes Aldrick Rosas Jersey , so for these open throws to happen down the field is a master class in scheming. CHICAGO (-7) over JetsThese are two defenses that have been good — first (CHI) and ninth (NYJ) in DVOA but were rough in their last game. Chicago should have a better pass rush and a better schemed offense, whether Mitchell Turbisky can take full advantage or not. But even with a quarterback question, the Bears are way more talented on that side of the ball, which should push this game in their favor.Cleveland (+8.5) over PITTSBURGHThis was a 21-21 tie in Week 1 when Tyrod Taylor was still the starter for the Browns. Since then Cleveland has gone to Baker Mayfield, who has been better, but the offense is still a work in progress. Meanwhile the Steelers have gotten a little better, but nowhere near one of the bets teams in the league they were expected to be at the start of the season. A really good Browns defense could be what keeps this close again.Baltimore (-2.5) over CAROLINAThe Ravens have the one legitimately good defense in the NFL. They have the lowest ANY/A against (4.7) and a 10.0 percent sack rate. Carolina has won a few games without looking particularly impressive and the defensive unit that has been good in years past just hasn’t been there yet. Baltimore should have the advantage on both sides of the ball and if not, the advantage they have on defense greatly outweighs everything else.Washington (-1) over GIANTSHow this line is still only Washington by one is puzzling. At least that was the case on Wednesday when this was written. Washington hasn’t been great this season and there have been real puzzling performances like against New Orleans, but there have been some flashes of good on both sides of the ball.Seattle (+3) over DETROITThe Seahawks have been a sneaky good team this season. They’re 10th in overall DVOA and fourth in defensive DVOA. The offense is what’s lacking — 20th in DVOA — but it’s still a unit led by Russell Wilson, if they let him. Detroit’s been coming together a little from the disastrous start of the season, but Seattle is still the better team right now.CINCINNATI (-4.5) over Tampa BayIt’s been a bit of a bummer of a few weeks for the Bengals. Two weeks ago they were 4-1, then they ran into the Steelers and the steamroller known as the Chiefs. Now they’re only 4-3. A blowout loss never looks good, but Cincinnati should still be considered better than that. Tampa Bay is going to continue to be a team that allows a lot of points and when the Bengals face a defense like that, they have the offensive pieces to take advantage.Indianapolis (-3) over OAKLANDWe saw last week the Colts are able to beat up on bad opponents when given the opportunity and we can safely say the Raiders are a bad opponent. Indianapolis is much better than a 2-5 record would indicate — the defense has been a pleasant surprise — and Oakland might be worse than its 1-5. The Raiders rank no better than 21st in any area, just lost Marshawn Lynch to injured reserve, Amari Cooper to the Cowboys Authentic Rhett Ellison Jersey , and spent the week using energy on a whole bunch of dumb stuff off the field. That’s not a team you pick to win a game. San Francisco (PK) over ARIZONAI had higher hopes for Arizona on Thursday night. The defense had started to click just because of the talent on it and then bam, the Broncos happened pretty quickly. Rosen is the better quarterback in this game and the Cardinals should have the better defense, but until they show any of that can come together for a full game, it’s safer to stay away, though I do have some hope for a Byron Leftwich coordinated offense.RAMS (-9.5) over Green BayThere aren’t many scenarios where I’d feel comfortable spotting an Aaron Rodgers opponent nearly 10 points, but guys, have you seen these Rams play? They’re nearly schematically perfect on offense and the defense has been getting more pressure off the edge and from players not named Aaron Donald, though that guy is still doing pretty well. The Rams are first in net yards per drive at plus-14.37 (only one other team is above plus-10 and third place is at plus-5.51) and first in net points per drive (1.28). I will pick them to win until proven otherwise.New Orleans (PK) over MINNESOTANeither of these teams are what they were in the NFC Championship Game, but this should still be a good, close game. New Orleans easy has the most dominant unit in this matchup — the offense — and that should be what gives them the advantage here. The Vikings’ defensive strength this season has been forcing three-and-outs (first in three-and-outs per drive), but after that, they’ll let teams drive down for at least a field goal. It’s just too hard to rely on forcing Drew Brees into a three-and-out.New England (-14) over BUFFALOI’m not sure what the point spread would have to be for me to consider Buffalo, who right now has the worst offensive ever tracked by DVOA through seven weeks. I do know that spread is not 14 points.Last week: 7-6-1Season: 48-54-5